Evo wins, Manfred loses but rejects results: peace on the streets, but is it the calm before the storm?

We have spent the day observing various voting centers and neighborhoods around the city of Cochabamba. The polls have closed now, and voting results are slowly coming in. So far, we have not witnessed any clashes or violence, nor have any been reported in the news. Voting seems to have gone smoothly, without major irregularities.

We interviewed various people, including ordinary voters, members civil society “electoral control” groups, and a few political leaders. Many of those interviewed expressed concerns that the various conflicts in the country will continue, or even deepen, following today’s referendum. Several anticipated violence in Cochabamba should the prefect here, Manfred Reyes Villa, lose the referendum and then refuse to leave. Those who oppose president Evo Morales and his MAS party say that the violence would come if “MASistas” from the rural areas of Cochabamba were to come to the city to take over the prefecture or take Reyes out by force. Those who support the president and his party say that if the Reyes loses and refuses to leave, the police would have to remove him, and then the embattled prefect’s supporters may instigate violence with the pretext of protecting Reyes.

As of right now, with the majority of votes counted, President Evo Morales has won the referendum with over 60% of voters supporting his continued presidency. Manfred Reyes Villa, the Cochabamba prefect, has lost, with ~58% voting against him. One point of debate and confusion has been with regards to two competing formulas for deciding the elections, one in which a politician could be ousted only if the votes against him were to surpass 50%, the other requiring only that the no votes exceed the percentage with which he was elected in 2005 – in the case of Manfred, below 50%. But 58% means that he has lost definitively, using either formula.

On TV Manfred Reyes Villa has, however, just declared his intention to continue in office. He says he is still the prefect of Cochabamba, that president Morales should, in the interest of national unity and the rule of law, allow him to remain in office, and he has reasserted that today’s referendum was illegal. This is something we feared would happen. However, what happens next depends largely on whether Reyes Villa is truly digging in his heels, or if he is simply trying to establish his position before a possible attempt to negotiate with the Morales government.

We have different sources within social movements, within the national government, and on the street. They all have different ideas about what might happen. There are some groups – especially youth on both sides – who are ready for a fight, but both claim that they are only prepared to defend their position against aggressions by the other side. Reyes Villa supporters will protect him if MAS supporters try to take over the prefecture our take him out by force. MAS supporters will move against Reyes Villa supporters only if the latter were to take over the prefecture to protect Reyes Villa – a scenario we deem unlikely and redundant, since Reyes Villa himself still controls said prefecture. Our sources in the government do not anticipate any violence, nor do we believe government forces would move against the prefecture right away. Once the official vote tally is registered, however, the national police may move to take over the prefecture. This depends on Evo Morales, and depends, again, on whether Reyes Villa seeks to negotiate.

We will continue to report as we know more.