Update on referendum aftermath: calm in Cochabamba

The following post is from Rimarikuna member Dan Moriarty, largely cross-posted from his blog.

Sunday's referendum results, coupled with a cordial and dialogical tone on the part of president Morales Sunday night, may have gone a long way toward mellowing opposition leaders. There are calls for dialog from all quarters, and the protests and strikes that were so intense around the country last week are now largely being suspended.

In Cochabamba, things also seem to be tending toward peace. Prefect Manfred Reyes Villa has been roundly defeated (roughly 60% voted for his ouster). On Sunday night as that fact became clear, he repeated declarations that the referendum was illegal and he had no intention of leaving office. But today, he is modifying his position: Manfred now says he will leave only when a replacement is elected - he will not hand over power to a prefect hand-picked by Morales. Meanwhile, the Civic Committee, an important ally of Manfred Reyes Villa, is calling on him to reflect upon his position and what is best for peace in Cochabamba. I suspect he finally recognizes just how isolated he has become, and he's now searching for a graceful way to bow out and position himself for a presidential bid in 2010.

We were on the streets Sunday talking with a lot of people, especially a number of right-wing activists. Many said two things: A) that if Manfred were to lose, he would have to recognize the expressed will of the people and step down (this from people who shared Manfred's position that the referendum was illegal); and B) they did expect clashes over this issue, largely because they anticipated that MAS activists (Morales supporters) would try to take over the prefecture or otherwise remove Manfred by force. MAS activists have done no such thing.

I just came from Cochabamba's main plaza, where Manfred is reportedly in his office in the prefecture, and all is calm. I spoke with some members of a radical activist group that has a regular presence in the plaza. They told me that they actually tried to move on the prefecture Sunday night, but were stopped by a group of "MASistas." There seems to be a general sense that, by some relatively orderly process, Reyes Villa will necessarily step down.

Not surprising in all of this is the fact that the vast majority of Bolivians, and Cochabambinos in particular, have zero interest in seeing more bloody clashes here. My worries - and those of family, friends, and others with whom I've spoken - stemmed from the possibility that a hard core of militants on either side (and some plain old thugs and racist street mercenaries on the right) would provoke the violence so many dreaded, and that others would then be sucked into reacting. But, as is supposed to happen in a democratic society, level-headed, peace-loving, dialog-seeking citizens have prevailed, at least for the moment.

¡Jallalla Bolivia!

Welcome to our blog, and to the Bolivian recall referendum

We are called Colectivo Rimarikuna, and we are a working group on nonviolence and the prevention of violence in social conflicts. We will be observing and reporting on what happens on the street tomorrow in Cochabamba as Bolivians go to the polls to decide whether the president, vice president, and 8 of the 9 regional prefects will continue in office. We think the likelihood of violence is actually higher Monday, Tuesday, or in the coming weeks, particularly in Cochabamba, where the prefect, Manfred Reyes Villa, is running weak in the polls and has said he does not recognize the referendum and will not leave office if voted out. But as a first action of its kind for our group, and just in case there are clashes tomorrow, we will be at some of the polling stations and in some of the neighborhoods we have determined the risk of violence to be highest.

For more general updates on the referendum, the Democracy Center will be live-blogging throughout the day as well, with reports coming in from around the country.

Our blog in Spanish is here.